The world in 2060
The OECD's forecasts
Nov 10th 2012 |The Economist from
the print edition
IN
RICH, debt-laden economies the policymaking horizon is short-term: a recovery
is the priority. Very long-range forecasts from the OECD, a think-tank, may
seem an exercise in irrelevance. But they are a useful reminder of the economic
and demographic factors that keep grinding away in the background.
In
particular, the OECD’s projections for 2060 (at constant purchasing-power
parities) show the impact of fast catch-up growth in underdeveloped countries
with big populations. Economic power will tilt even more decisively away from
the rich world than many realise. In 2011 the current membership of the OECD
made up 65% of global output, compared with a combined 24% for China and India.
By 2060 the two Asian giants will have a 46% share of world GDP, the OECD
members a shrunken 42%. India’s economy will be a bit bigger than America’s,
China’s a lot.
Even
so the Chinese and Indians will still be much less well-off than Americans (see
chart). The same forecasts show GDP per person in China at 59% of that in
America; in India it will be only 27%. And Americans will increase their lead
over the citizens of some developed countries like France and Italy.
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